India's GDP expands 7% in Q3

CSO to factor in demonetisation in GDP growth estimates on Tuesday

Real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016 grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.9%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's revised estimate, unchanged from the advance estimate.

"With the second advance estimate for 2016-17 at 7.1%, the data belies the widespread expectation of sub 7% growth this fiscal year".

CSO is not alone.

With regard to global growth, Moody's said continuing cyclical recovery in global economic activity with growth in G-20 countries picking up modestly to 3 per cent in 2017 and 2018 from 2.6 per cent in 2016, but potential shifts in usa policy add uncertainty to this forecast.

Meanwhile, Growth of 8 core sector industries slowed to 3.4 per cent in January compared to 5.7 pc in the year-ago month, government data showed on Tuesday. While the former is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent (10.7 per cent in FY2016), the growth in finance, insurance, real estate is projected to come in at 6.5 per cent (10.8 per cent in FY2016). Moving in sync was the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which saw the economy growing at 6.6 per cent - significantly lower than its initial estimate of 7.6 per cent.

The numbers released today show that growth decelerated to 7.0 per cent in October-December quarter even as sectoral data reflected minimal impact of demonetisation on account of a sharp rise in agricultural growth and a pickup in manufacturing sector growth.

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This comes as a pleasant surprise as demonetisation effect do not seem to have affected the GDP growth by much. However, the data captured by the CSO does not reflect the same.

With demonetization denting consumer demand, overall vehicle sales in the month of December also fell for the first time in 11 months, dropping 1.36% from a year ago to 227,824 units.

The government data came on the same day as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released a survey, praising Modi for India's high growth, but warning that not all Indians were benefitting from it.

Chief statistician T.C.A Anant said that it was hard to assess the full impact of demonetization. India, it said, "is expected to regain its momentum, with growth rising to 7.6% in [the financial year ending in March] 2018 and strengthening to 7.8% in FY2019-20".

At a media briefing by chief statistician TCA Anant, reporters wondered whether the impact of demonetization was factored into the third-quarter estimates. Similar period previous year the GDP grew by 7.2%.

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