Barkindo: OPEC was Anticipating Revival in Libya, Nigeria, Iran Oil Production

Energy Snapshot What Happened on July 3–7 2017

With crude oil price now hovering around $44.70 a barrel, the minister said it was on a good trajectory, although he noted OPEC members would be more comfortable with the price band of $55 and $60 per barrel.

However, PublicInvest suggests OPEC is in a conundrum between fighting for market share by raising production or stabilising prices by maintaining cuts.

This has diluted Opec's production cuts by almost two-thirds, which the IEA noted: "must be very frustrating especially as their pact has, hitherto, been well observed by historical standards".

Fresh cracks were exposed in OPEC's agreement to cut production, as signs emerged that the oil group is struggling to adhere to the deal.

In other news, OPEC said its oil output rose by 393,000 bpd in June to 32.611 million bpd led by a rebound in Nigeria and Libya, plus a few extra barrels from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

PREMIUM TIMES recalls that the exemption, which was initially for six months, was extended for another nine months.

However, it noted that compliance should be judged over the whole period of the production cut to March 2018, rather than just one month. Oil dipped into a bear market last month, but prices have since recovered some of the lost ground. But, the recovery is very gradual.

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The Middle Eastern, African and Latin American countries that make up OPEC pumped 32.6 million barrels per day in June, accounting for more than a third of global supplies.

The IEA on Thursday also called the change in demand "a dramatic acceleration".

The slide has come amid a great clash between the historically dominant OPEC members - now attempting to support prices with a global production-cut deal and scrambling to diversify their economies - and upstart shale producers in the US, which have slashed costs, improved their efficiency and refinanced vast loads of debt in a drive to survive. It is, however, not certain if that would be agreed at the July 24 meeting.

Anyway, no further oil output cuts are expected for the July meeting of the ministerial committee set up to monitor compliance with the OPEC-non-OPEC deal.

The EIA also reported that gasoline supply fell by 1.6 million barrels as demand for gas surged again last week and cut the deficit year over year by half. In both years, most of this growth (about 1.2 million b/d annually) comes from countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), with China and India expected to be the largest contributors to non-OECD liquid fuels consumption growth.

Speaking to journalists in Abuja on Wednesday, Kachikwu said the Federal Government was working on measures to cushion the effects of the gap from oil production on the Budget.

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